Make the judgement explainable.
Horizon explains the pace of development, readiness for use and the decisions a change could affect.
Three independent dimensions
Momentum — Is it moving?
Look at the pace of announcements, investment and uptake across the market. Many announcements can show activity while a feature is still unavailable.
Maturity — Is it real?
Check release availability, customer use and what an implementation requires. Keep demonstrations, planned features and restricted betas separate from general availability.
Consequence — Does it matter?
Identify who would be affected, what could change and how long the effect may last. A slowly developing feature can still have significant consequences.
Hype gap — Expectations versus demonstrated reality
Compare public expectations with demonstrated results. Record Low, Moderate, High or Extreme only when that comparison can be supported.
Horizon states
Evidence confidence
A — strong independent evidence and production proof.
B — substantial evidence with meaningful corroboration.
C — credible but incomplete or emerging evidence, including product documentation without independent implementation proof.
D — speculative, roadmap-led, marketing-led or otherwise unvalidated.
Action is contextual
WATCH · INVESTIGATE · PILOT · PLAN · ACT · STANDARDISE · REASSESS
Choose the action for the reader’s situation and timescale. Explain the recommendation, its limits and the sources behind it; a classification alone does not determine the next step.
Before an assessment is published
Check dated sources, availability and independent corroboration. Explain any disagreements. A second reviewer should challenge the interpretation; if the evidence is insufficient, leave the classification open.
Calibration and history
We have not yet validated the method across reviewers. Before making that claim, we need to test whether different reviewers reach consistent conclusions. Keep earlier assessments and explain each revision.
Use the section that fits your question.
Intelligence
Use Intelligence to understand a documented product change or practical implementation question. A general-availability announcement still needs review before we publish a recommendation.
Horizon
Use Horizon for planned releases, previews, beta features or uncertain availability. Each assessment explains what is developing, how ready it is and what would change our advice.
Research
Use Research to compare documentation across platforms or reuse a dated dataset. Each report explains its method and limitations.
Promotion rule: when a development becomes available and the evidence is reviewed, link the earlier Horizon assessment to the current Intelligence brief. Keep the earlier assessment visible.
Conflict rule: if sources disagree, a material claim lacks support or availability is unclear, keep the claim in review until it can be explained accurately.